A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
